What are the Odds?
Have you ever wondered, what the odds are that a new white belt will ever make it to black belt? The most common answer that I’ve heard was, “Hmm, maybe 1 percent?” Of course, it varies, depending upon the karate style and dojo, but this agrees with my own personal opinion of one’s chances of making shodan. Curious, I tried googling the internet in search of any scientific study regarding this phenomenon, haha (I couldn’t find one). However, I did come across various quora where veteran karateka would share their estimates of the odds, and their most common guess was also in the 1-2 percent range. Think about it, back when you were a white belt, how many of your fellow new beginners lasted long enough to take the blue belt exam? Maybe half? That means of every 100 new beginners, perhaps 50 might make it to blue belt. Then, a similar winnowing phenomenon occurs at each higher rank level. Of the 50 blue belts, perhaps 25 make it to the green levels, then maybe 10-12 to the purple levels, at by sankyu (lowest brown) it’s down to a half-dozen. And at the more difficult brown belt levels, more attrition [...]